The Punk PM #47

Hey there, punk!

This week I've been thinking a lot about expertise. Specifically, what it's actually worth when AI can generate answers to everything instantly.

It came up on The Inside Track podcast, and I haven't been able to shake it since. Because I think the real question isn't about knowledge at all.

It's about wisdom.

Let's get into it.

Quote of the Week 🙊

Insight 🦉

There's a difference between knowing about something and truly knowing it.

AI has absorbed more information than any human ever could. It's read the case studies. It's ingested the frameworks. It can recite the playbook on any decision you care to name. But information isn't judgement. And knowing about the game isn't the same as having played it.

Here's the distinction that matters: wisdom is what happens when knowledge meets experience in the arena. It's not transferable through training data. You can't download it. You earn it through the accumulation of decisions made, and the quiet recalibration that follows each one.

John Boyd called it Fingerspitzengefühl, or fingertip feeling. The ability to act correctly before you've consciously worked out why. Fighter pilots develop it. So do surgeons, chess grandmasters, and—if they've put in the reps—great product managers. It's not intuition in the mystical sense. It's pattern recognition so deeply embedded it operates below the waterline.

Boyd's insight was that in fast-moving, high-stakes environments, the person who can make good-enough decisions quickly will beat the person making perfect decisions slowly every time. What enables that speed isn't more information. It's the right mental models, hardwired through experience.

That's what AI can't replicate. It can figure out probabilities. It can surface relevant precedents. But it can't feel the weight of a decision that needs making. It has no skin in the game. It doesn't carry the memory of the last time something like this went sideways and why. It doesn't sit with the discomfort of a bet that looks wrong on paper but feels right in context.

Judgement compounds. Every decision you make, every post-mortem you run, every stakeholder you read correctly, every product bet you win or lose, adds another reference point to the stack. The more you do it, the faster you get, and the better you get. That's not a soft skill. That's a durable, accumulating edge that no LLM is going to close the gap on.

AI has all the knowledge. It doesn't know what to do with it. That part is still yours.

Action 🚀

Next week, before you make a difficult call, write down the reasoning you're actually using. Not the version you'd put in a slide deck. The real one.

Do it enough times and it stops being reflection. It becomes instinct.

Inspiration 💡

Design Was Never the Comps – Christopher Noessel on why dumping a dozen AI-generated screens on someone isn't design thinking, it's just output. The reasoning behind the work matters as much as the work itself. A useful reminder that process and partnership beat speed and volume. Read more

Why I'm Wary of Book Summary Apps – Sam Rinko makes the case that the time you spend with a book is the point, not the obstacle. Shortcuts save time but lose the thing that actually changes how you think. Read more

How to Use AI Without Becoming Stupid – Cedric Chin draws a clear line: use AI for tasks, not for meaning. The moment you outsource your value judgements to a model, you've given away the most important part of the job. Read more

Signing Off ✍️

If this resonates with you, hit reply and let me know. And if you think a friend or colleague would enjoy The Punk PM, feel free to share it with them!

Play it your way,

Toby