The Punk PM #7

Hey there, punk!

Happy Friday! Last week, I said that if you want to be an effective product manager, you’d be better off understanding the OODA Loop than memorising the Scrum Guide.

Today, I’m going to dive into what John Boyd’s mental model is all about, why it’s useful for PMs, and how you can use it.

Let’s break it down.

Quote of the Week 🙊

Insight 🦉

Process is useful, but in the chaotic world of tech, frameworks become obsolete the moment they’re written down. The rise of AI is only accelerating this trend. What you need instead is a set of mental models—thinking frameworks that help you make fast, effective decisions in an ever-changing landscape.

One of the most powerful mental models I’ve found for this is the OODA Loop.

What is the OODA Loop?

OODA stands for Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. Originally developed by military strategist John Boyd, it’s a decision-making framework designed for fast, iterative action in uncertain and high-pressure environments.

Unlike rigid methodologies, the OODA Loop is adaptable. It’s about constantly gathering new information, adjusting your perspective, making quick decisions, and acting—then cycling through the loop again, refining as you go.

Sound familiar? It should. If you’re in product, you’re already doing some version of this. But making the process explicit—and learning to move through the loop faster than your competition—is where the real advantage lies.

Breaking Down the OODA Loop

Observe

The loop starts with observation—taking in as much relevant information as possible about your environment. In a product context, this means:

• Tracking user behaviour and analytics

• Monitoring market trends and competitor movements

• Gathering qualitative insights from user research

• Listening to internal signals from sales, support, and engineering

Great PMs build strong observation systems. They don’t just wait for reports to land on their desk—they set up proactive ways to gather real-time feedback from the market.

Orient

This is the most underrated (and misunderstood) part of the loop. Orientation is where you interpret the data, synthesise insights, and adjust your mental models.

Boyd described this phase as the most critical because it’s where biases, assumptions, and learned experiences influence how you make sense of the world. In product, this means:

• Separating signal from noise in your data

• Understanding how changing conditions affect your strategy

• Challenging existing assumptions about your market and users

• Avoiding the trap of cognitive biases (confirmation bias, sunk cost fallacy, etc.)

Fail to orient correctly, and you’ll make bad decisions—even if you have perfect information.

Decide

After synthesising your insights, you need to make a call. The key here is to bias towards action.

Many teams get stuck in analysis paralysis, waiting for perfect data before making a move. But in fast-changing markets, speed beats certainty. The best product managers develop an intuition for when they have enough information to act.

Decision-making in the OODA Loop isn’t about perfection. It’s about making smart bets, testing them quickly, and iterating based on real-world feedback.

Act

This is where strategy meets execution. You take your decision and put it into motion. More importantly, action feeds back into observation—because every move you make generates new data, which starts the loop again.

If your decision was right, you double down. If it wasn’t, you learn and adjust. Either way, you move faster than the competition, staying ahead of market shifts and user needs.

Applying the OODA Loop to Product Management

1. Speed Over Bureaucracy

Traditional product processes often slow teams down with excessive planning and approval cycles. The OODA Loop forces you to move quickly, reducing the time from insight to action.

• Instead of: Quarterly roadmaps that lock you in.

• Try: Continuous prioritisation based on real-time insights.

2. Build Feedback Loops

The OODA Loop is fuelled by high-quality inputs. If you don’t have strong feedback mechanisms in place, you’re flying blind.

• Instead of: Waiting for quarterly NPS reports.

• Try: Setting up always-on user research and rapid experimentation.

3. Challenge Assumptions Constantly

Your competition isn’t just other companies—it’s also your own outdated thinking. Orienting correctly means being ruthless about challenging assumptions.

• Instead of: Relying on old personas and market research.

• Try: Running frequent assumption tests and re-validating insights.

4. Make Small, Reversible Bets

The best product decisions aren’t made in a vacuum—they’re tested in the real world. The OODA Loop encourages rapid iteration over big, risky bets.

• Instead of: Large, multi-month projects with big launches.

• Try: Smaller experiments that generate quick learnings.

5. Cycle Faster Than the Competition

Boyd’s insight was that whoever cycles through the loop faster wins. For product teams, this means operating in real-time, not on artificial planning cycles.

• Instead of: Waiting for your annual strategy review.

• Try: Making weekly or even daily micro-adjustments based on new data.

Closing Thoughts

On paper, the OODA Loop might seem obvious. But its power lies in making implicit decision-making explicit—and in moving through the cycle faster than everyone else.

As a product manager, you’re navigating uncertainty every day. If you can master the OODA Loop, you won’t just keep up—you’ll stay ahead. And in an industry moving at breakneck speed, that’s the difference between winning and getting left behind.

Action 🚀

Identify one area in your product decision-making process where you’re moving too slowly. How can you apply the OODA Loop to speed it up this week?

Inspiration 💡

Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War by Robert Coram

Robert Coram's biography is an in-depth look at John Boyd's life, from his achievements as a fighter pilot to his profound influence on military strategy. The book is a great read, full of valuable insights into the development of the Boyd’s thinking and its applications beyond the battlefield.

The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions by Farnam Street

This article breaks down the OODA Loop's four stages—Observe, Orient, Decide, Act—and discusses its relevance in high-stakes situations. It emphasises the importance of continuous learning and adaptation, principles that are crucial for product managers navigating today's fast-paced tech environment.

Colonel John Boyd's Thoughts on Disruption by Brian R. Price

This piece delves into Boyd's 1987 presentation, "An Organic Design for Command and Control," highlighting his insights on disruption. Boyd emphasises creating uncertainty, confusion, and disorder to disrupt opponents' decision-making processes. In product management, this can translate to challenging market norms and introducing innovations that unsettle competitors in order to gain a strategic advantage.

The OODA Loop and the Half-Beat by Alastair Luft

This article challenges the common interpretation of John Boyd's OODA Loop as merely a call for speed. Luft argues that while rapid decision-making is valuable, the true power of the OODA Loop lies in timing—identifying precise moments when an opponent is most vulnerable and acting decisively. For product managers, this underscores the importance of not just moving quickly, but also choosing the right moment to pivot or launch to ensure maximum impact.

Signing Off ✍️

If this resonates with you, hit reply and let me know how you’re applying the OODA Loop in your product work. And if you think a friend or colleague would enjoy The Punk PM, feel free to share it with them!

Play it your way,

Toby